Monday, November 3, 2024
Several weeks ago, I predicted a Trump “buzzer beater” victory in the national election, and nothing has happened in the meantime to make me change my mind. If anything, a poll mentioned in an article in the Washington Post convinces me that he will be the one inaugurated as the next President in January, 2025.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/01/presidential-election-results-scenarios-trump-harris/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert
QUOTE: A Washington Post-Schar School poll last week showed 51 percent of voters across the seven swing states approved of his presidency. UNQUOTE
Now please notice that this is a poll of seven swing states. That poll did not measure what percentage of voters in the entire United States approved of his term in the White House from 2017 to 2020. My guess is that it’s around 45 to 47 percent. After all, Trump’s first term as President was particularly unpopular in several states with large populations. So while I don’t have an official poll to cite, it’s extremely unlikely that Trump could break the 50 percent barrier of first term approval on a national level. Why does he remain so unpopular? For one thing, he’s an incoherent prevaricator. Narcissism is the fountain of youth for compulsive liars, and Trump guzzles from it as if it were a diet cola.
I predict that Trump will win the popular vote in a majority of the seven swing states. In doing so, I repeat my original prediction: he will lost the national popular vote for the third election in a row. More people in the United States detest, loathe, and despise him than admire him. Unfortunately, the election rules are set up so that if he wins for instance, the popular vote in Michigan or Pennsylvania by less than 15,000 votes, he wins all of that state’s electoral college votes. A win is a win in any given state, and such an outcome could give him an Electoral College victory for the second time in the past three national elections.
I am terrified that so many of my fellow citizens want a tyrannical bully for a leader. Trump will proclaim, of course, that losing the popular vote for the third election in a row gives him a mandate to generate radical chaos in the federal government’s policies. There are a number of outcomes that are not going to be popular with those who voted for him, and during the next four years I will remind them of their responsibility for making those disappointments possible.
I can only hope that California does not experience its long-expected calamity of an overwhelming earthquake, since Trump will be even more contemptuous and disdainful of this state’s needs than Bush was of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina or Trump himself was of those in Puerto Rico after their natural disaster in his first term. As for myself, I have only a smidgen of hope that I will be spared the attention of his assiduous, boot-licking lackeys. I hear their giddy algorithms of retribution already at work, singing of a vitriolic fascism.
*****
If Biden had announced, halfway through his term, that he was indeed only a one-term president, things might have turned out differently. VP Harris has done as good a job in running a three-month campaign as anyone could ask for, but Biden’s performance in the first debate ultimatey weakened the case for voters to choose a Democrat in the 2024 election. The blame for Trump’s return to the White House primarily rests on Biden’s shoulders and history will judge him very harshly.
About Bill Mohr